Identification and Analysis of Key Drivers for Sustainable Urban Tourism Development: A case study of Shandiz

A B S T R A C T
The rapid growth of Shandiz, as one of the most important tourist destinations in Razavi Khorasan Province, has created economic opportunities while simultaneously exerting pressures on natural resources, infrastructure, and the social fabric. This study aims to identify and prioritize the key drivers influencing the sustainable development of urban tourism in Shandiz and to develop foresight-based scenarios to guide strategic policymaking and planning. The research employs an applied–analytical approach with a futures studies perspective. Data were initially collected through a systematic review of theoretical literature and similar studies, and subsequently validated via semi-structured interviews with 15 experts in sustainable tourism, urban planning, environmental management, private tourism sector, and local–cultural institutions. Experts were selected based on their experience, expertise, and influential roles in the relevant domains. To analyze relationships and determine the relative importance of factors, cross-impact analysis was conducted using MicMac software, identifying the key drivers with the greatest impact and uncertainty. Then, by employing Scenario Wizard software, various combinations of these drivers were used to generate and evaluate three main scenarios. The results indicated that four drivers—“diversification of tourism products,” “institutional coordination,” “digital governance infrastructure,” and “empowerment of non-governmental actors”—play the most strategic role in the future of tourism in Shandiz. Scenario comparison revealed that the third scenario, with the highest synergy and alignment, outlines a sustainable, participatory, and technology-driven development path. By leveraging local capacities and digital innovation, this scenario facilitates the realization of competitive and smart tourism, serving as a basis for strategic planning and policymaking in Shandiz.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Tourism has emerged as one of the fastest-growing global industries, generating substantial economic opportunities while simultaneously exerting pressure on natural, cultural, and social systems. The case of Shandiz, a prominent tourist destination located near Mashhad in Razavi Khorasan Province, illustrates these dynamics. Traditionally valued as a summer retreat and cultural landscape, Shandiz has increasingly developed into a national and regional tourism hub. Its rapid growth, however, has created significant challenges, including strain on infrastructure, pressure on natural resources, and transformations in the social fabric of local communities. Such dynamics underscore the need for sustainable urban tourism, which reconciles economic benefits with environmental stewardship and cultural integrity. Despite its potential, tourism development in Shandiz has often been uncoordinated, underpinned by weak institutional alignment, limited community empowerment, and insufficient adoption of digital technologies. This study responds to these challenges by adopting a futures studies perspective to identify the most influential drivers shaping the sustainable development of urban tourism in Shandiz. It also explores how different combinations of these drivers could generate alternative scenarios for the city’s tourism future. The overarching aim is to provide policymakers and stakeholders with a forward-looking framework that supports strategic planning and ensures the resilience and competitiveness of Shandiz as a tourism destination.
 
Methodology
The research is applied–analytical in nature and structured around futures studies methodologies. Data collection proceeded in two phases. The first phase involved a systematic review of theoretical literature and comparable case studies, resulting in a preliminary set of thirty drivers influencing tourism sustainability. The second phase validated and refined these drivers through semi-structured interviews with 15 experts representing diverse fields such as sustainable tourism, urban planning, environmental management, the private tourism sector, and local–cultural institutions. Experts were selected based on their experience, professional expertise, and their roles in shaping tourism-related decisions. For data analysis, a cross-impact matrix was constructed and analyzed using MicMac software, which revealed the relational dynamics among drivers and identified those with the greatest influence and uncertainty. Following this, Scenario Wizard software was employed to simulate different combinations of driver states and to construct three main scenarios for the future of Shandiz’s tourism system. This methodological design allowed the study not only to identify key drivers but also to examine how their interactions may produce divergent yet plausible future pathways.
 
Results and discussion
The analysis identified four drivers as particularly strategic for Shandiz’s tourism future: (1) diversification of tourism products, (2) institutional coordination between local and national stakeholders, (3) digital governance infrastructure, and (4) empowerment of non-governmental actors, including communities and private sector entities. These factors, located in the high-influence/high-uncertainty quadrant of the MicMac analysis, were found to be decisive in shaping the trajectory of urban tourism in Shandiz. Scenario analysis yielded three alternative futures. The first scenario depicted a fragmented and vulnerable path, characterized by lack of coordination, inadequate digital infrastructure, and minimal community participation. This pathway risked environmental degradation and erosion of the city’s competitiveness. The second scenario illustrated a transitional trajectory, with partial product diversification and digital adoption, yet constrained by only relative institutional alignment and symbolic rather than meaningful local engagement.
The third scenario, however, was identified as the most desirable and robust. It envisioned a synergistic development model integrating diverse tourism products—such as cultural, creative, agro-tourism, health, and eco-tourism—with full institutional coordination, advanced digital governance systems, and empowered community participation. This scenario highlighted a balanced and resilient framework where local resources are utilized through participatory governance, technological innovation, and institutional cohesion. Importantly, it emphasized that sustainability in Shandiz depends not only on protecting ecological resources but also on strengthening social capital, enhancing institutional capacity, and embedding digital transformation into tourism governance.
The discussion of these findings suggests that the third scenario positions Shandiz to achieve a competitive and smart tourism model. It creates a future where tourism development is inclusive, resilient, and capable of adapting to uncertainties, thereby transforming Shandiz into a model destination for sustainable urban tourism in Iran and beyond.
 
Conclusion
This study concludes that achieving sustainable urban tourism in Shandiz requires strategic attention to four interdependent pillars: diversification of tourism products, institutional coordination, digital governance, and empowerment of non-governmental actors. The third scenario, representing a sustainable, participatory, and technology-driven pathway, provides the most viable roadmap for the city’s future. By leveraging local capacities, embracing digital innovation, and ensuring inclusive governance, Shandiz can secure its position as a competitive and resilient tourism destination.
The implications of this research extend beyond Shandiz, offering insights for other urban destinations grappling with rapid tourism growth and sustainability challenges. The combination of foresight methodologies and scenario planning demonstrated here provides a robust framework for navigating uncertainty and guiding evidence-based policymaking in the tourism sector.
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.