تحلیل ساختاری بازآفرینی بافت‌های فرسوده کلان‌شهر تهران با بهره‌گیری از رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از مشکلات عمده شهرها وجود بافتهای فرسوده در آن‌هاست که خود سرآغاز بسیاری از مشکلات و معضلات می‌باشد، به‌گونه‌ای که امروزه این بافت‌ها از هر لحاظ به‌خصوص ساختاری و عملکردی دچار کمبودهایی شده و جوابگوی نیاز ساکنین خود نمی‌باشند. در راستای کـاهش مشـکلات بافت‌های فرسوده شهری موضوع ساماندهی از طریق رویکردهای متفاوتی چون بازسازی، باززنده‌سازی، نوسازی، توسعه مجدد و درنهایت بازآفرینی مطرح‌شده است. این مطالعه با هدف تحقق و توسعه بازآفرینی بافت‌های فرسوده در کلان‌شهر تهران با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی انجام پذیرفت. در پژوهش حاضر، از طریق غربالگری 24 عامل به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر بازآفرینی بافت‌های فرسوده انتخاب شدند. داده‌های حاصل، از طریق نرم‌افزار MICMAC تجزیه‌وتحلیل گردید و تأثیرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم عامل‌ها بر بازآفرینی بافت‌های فرسوده با ارزش‌های عددی متفاوتی مشخص گردید. دو عامل مهم «بسترها و زیرساخت‌های بازآفرینی» و «مدیریت شهری» سناریوهای قابل‌قبولی برای آینده بازآفرینی ارائه دادند. در سناریوی اول ) مریخ (هیچ بستر و زیرساختی و همچنین متخصص و مدیری نیست و هیچ قصدی نیز برای جذب آن‌ها وجود ندارد. سناریوی دوم (کشتی بدون کاپیتان) بر این اساس است که بستر و زیرساخت وجود دارد، اما مدیریتی متخصص و آگاه برای پیشبرد اهداف وجود ندارد. در سناریوی سوم (نایک)، کمیت و کیفیت ابزاری و انسانی به‌خوبی کار می‌کنند و آینده بسیار امیدوارکننده و ایده‌آل خواهد بود و در سناریوی چهارم (یانوس) مدیران متخصص به کار گرفته می‌شوند اما بستر و زیرساختی برای پیشبرد اهداف وجود ندارد.  

کلیدواژه‌ها

مراجع

  1. سالنامه آماری شهرداری تهران. (1400). شهرستان تهران. https://www.tehran.ir/
  2. سبحانی، نوبخت؛ سعیدی‌فرد، فرانک؛ واحدی یگانه، فرید و گلچین، مسعود. (1397). بازآفرینی شهری، پدافند غیرعامل و مدیریت بحران در بافت‌های فرسوده، انتشارات جهاد دانشگاهی قزوین. قزوین.
  3. شرکت بازآفرینی شهری ایران. (1398). ایران، تهران. https://udrc.ir/
  4. فتحی، محمدرضا؛ ملکی، محمدحسین و رضوانی‌اصل، وحید. (1396). آینده‌نگاری سرمایه‌گذاری در صنعت مسکن ایران با به‌کارگیری رویکرد سناریونویسی و ماتریس تأثیرات متقاطع، آینده‌پژوهی مدیریت، 111(28).
  5. محمدی سرین دیزج، مهدی. (1400). تحلیل تاب‌آوری فیزیکی - کالبدی نواحی شهری بر مبنای سناریو در زمان وقوع زلزله (موردمطالعه: شهر زنجان)، تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی، 21(60)، 85-65.
  6. http://dx.doi.org/10.52547/jgs.21.60.65
  7. مرکز آمار ایران. (1395). استان تهران، شهرستان تهران. https://amar.org.ir/
  8. واحدی یگانه، فرید؛ مشکینی، ابوالفضل و محمدی، اکبر. (1401). تحلیل نقش پروژه‌های محرک توسعه در تحقق سیاست‌های بازآفرینی (مطالعه موردی: محدوده مرکزی شهر سنندج)، اقتصاد و برنامه‌ریزی، 3 (3)، 196-211. https://doi.org/10.22034/uep.2022.356966.1273
  9. Al-Harami, A & Furlan, R. (2020). Qatar National Museum-Transit oriented development: The masterplan for the urban regeneration of a ‘green TOD’, Journal of Urban Management, 9, 115 – 136. doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2019.09.003
  10. Alpopi, C & Manole, C. (2013). Integrated Urban Regeneration - Solution for Cities Revitalize, Procedia Economics and Finance, 6, 178 – 185. doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00130-5
  11. Asian Development Bank (ADB). (2022). Inclusive Cities Urban Area Guidelines, dx.doi.org/10.22617/TIM200037-2
  12. Awad, J & Jung, C. (2022). Extracting the Planning Elements for Sustainable Urban Regeneration in Dubai with AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), Sustainable Cities and Society, 76. doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103496
  13. Behzadfar, M. & Saneei, M. (2012). Regeneration of Isfahan Historical Axes with Emphasis on Design Dimensions (The Case Study of Joibareh Neighbourhood), Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 150, 728 – 735. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.08.232
  14. Biswas, R., Jana, A., Arya, K & Ramamritham, K. (2019). A good-governance framework for urban management, Journal of Urban Management, 8 (2), doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2018.12.009
  15. Bravo, C., Lopez, J.P & Adell, E. M. (2022). The management of water heritage in Portuguese cities: Recent regeneration projects in E ´vora, Lisbon, Braga and Guimaraes, 11 (1), 73 – 88. doi.org/10.1016/j.foar.2021.09.002
  16. Bruneckiene, J., Pekarskiene, I., Palekiene, O & Simanaviciene, Z. (2019). An Assessment of Socio-Economic Systems’ Resilience to Economic Shocks: The Case of Lithuanian Regions, Sustainability, 11 (3), doi.org/10.3390/su11030566
  17. Calleo, Y & Pilla, F. (2023). Delphi-based future scenarios: A bibliometric analysis of climate change case studies, Futures, 149. doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103143
  18. Carra, M., Rossetti, S., Tiboni, M & Vetturi, D. (2022). Can Urban Regeneration improve Walkability? A space-time assessment for the Tintoretto area in Brescia, Transportation Research Procedia, 60, 394 – 401. doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2021.12.051
  19. Chatziioannou, I., Nikitas, A., Tzouras, P. G., Bakogiannis, E., Alvarez-Icaza, L., Chias-Becerrli, L., Karolemeas, C., Tsigdinos, S., Wallgren, P & Rexfelt, O. (2023). Ranking sustainable urban mobility indicators and their matching transport policies to support liveable city Futures: A MICMAC approach, Transportation Research Interdiscplinary Perspective, 18, doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100788
  20. Chen, J & Qi, K. (2021). Urban regeneration with the intervention of industrial transformation and curatorial ideas ‐ A Case Study of Dafen Village, Shenzhen, Telematics and Informatics Reports, 1–4. doi.org/10.1016/j.teler.2022.100004
  21. Chen, X., Zhu, H & Yuan, Z. (2020). Contested memory amidst rapid urban transition: The cultural politics of urban regeneration in Guangzhou, China, Cities, 102. doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102755
  22. Clark, g. (2013). the Future of Cities: The Role of Strategic Planning, Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, 5 (1), 3 – 32. doi.org/10.24023/Future Journal/2175-5825/2013.v5i1.140
  23. Claudia, T & Luigi, P. (2016). A novel paradigm to achieve sustainable regeneration in Historical Centres with Cultural Heritage, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 223, 693 – 697. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.243
  24. D’Onofrio, R & Trusiani, E. (2022). The Future of the City in the Name of Proximity: A New Perspective for the Urban Regeneration of Council Housing Suburbs in Italy after the Pandemic, Sustainability, 14 (3), doi.org/10.3390/su14031252
  25. Dinardi, C. (2015). Unsettling the role of culture as panacea: The politics of culture-led urban regeneration in Buenos Aires, City, Culture and Society, 6 (2), 9 – 18. doi.org/10.1016/j.ccs.2015.03.003
  26. Dixon, T. J., Karuri-Sebina, G., Ravetz, J & Tewdwr-Jones, M. (2023). Re-imagining the future: city-region foresight and visioning in an era of fragmented governance, Regional Studies, 57 (4), 609 – 616. doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2022.2076825
  27. Fathi, M.R., Maleki, M.H & Rezvaniasl, V. (2017). Foresight of investment in Iran's housing industry by using the scenario writing approach and cross effects matrix, Foresight of management, 28 (4), 11 – 28. [in Persian].
  28. Fraser, A., Leck, H., Parnell, S., Pelling, M., Brown, D & Lwasa, S. (2017). Meeting the challenge of risk-sensitive and resilient urban development in sub-Saharan Africa: Directions for future research and practice, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 26, 106 – 109. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.10.001
  29. Furlan, R., Petruccioli, A., Major, M.D., Zaina, S., Zaina, S., Saeed, M & Saleh, D. (2019). The urban regeneration of west-bay, business district of Doha (State of Qatar): A transit-oriented development enhancing livability, Journal of Urban Management, 8, 126 – 144. doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2018.10.001
  30. Ghorbani, R., Zamani, A & Tahooni, M. (2022). An analysis on sustainable urban regeneration with the approach of cohesion and continuity based on scenario-based future research The case study a northern neighborhoods of historical-cultural context Tabriz city, Journal of Geographical Urban Planning Research, 10 (4), 41 – 63. doi.org/10.22059/JURBANGEO.2023.342899.1696
  31. Huang, J., Xu, Y., Wang, C., Xiong, L & Hai, J. (2017). Research on Problem of Urban Regeneration and Optimization of Land-use around Light Rail Transit in Nanhai District of Foshan City, Transportation Research Procedia, 25, 3055 – 3065. doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.306
  32. Hudson, P., Raska, P., Machac, J. & Slavikova, L. (2022). Balancing the interaction between urban regeneration and flood risk management – A cost benefit approach in Ústí nad Labem. Land Use Policy, 120. doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106276
  33. Hwang, K.H. (2014). finding Urban Identity through Culture-led Urban Regeneration, Journal of Urban Management, 3 (1-2), 67 – 85. doi.org/10.1016/S2226-5856(18)30084-0
  34. Iran Urban Regeneration Company. (2019). Tehran city. https://udrc.ir/ [in Persian].
  35. Izadfar, N & Rezaei, M.R. (2020). Identifying the key factors affecting sustainable urban regeneration with a future research approach (case study: the inefficient context of Yazd city), Quarterly Journal of Geography and Urban-Regional Studies, 10 (34), 109-130. doi.org/10.22111/gaij.2020.5332
  36. Javanmardi, E., Liu, S & Xie, N. (2023), Exploring the Challenges to Sustainable Development from the Perspective of Grey Systems Theory, Systems, 11 (70), doi.org/10.3390/systems11020070
  37. Jensen, M.T., Chambers, D & Wilson, S. (2023). The future of deaf tourism studies: An interdisciplinary research agenda, Annals of Tourism Research, 100, doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2023.103549
  38. Kersbergen, K & Vis, B. (2022). Digitalization as a policy response to social acceleration: Comparing democratic problem solving in Denmark and the Netherlands, Government Information Quarterly, 39 (3), doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2022.101707
  39. Korkmaz, C & Balaban, O. (2020). Sustainability of urban regeneration in Turkey: Assessing the performance of the North Ankara Urban Regeneration Project, Habitat International, 95, doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2019.102081
  40. Kosow, H & Gabner, R. (2008). Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis: Overview, assessment, and selection criteria, Social Science Open Access Repository. nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-193660
  41. Melih Cin, M & Egercioglu, Y. (2016). A Critical Analysis of Urban Regeneration Projects in Turkey: Displacement of Romani Settlement Case, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 216, 269 – 278. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.12.037
  42. Merrie, A., Keys, P., Metian, M & Österblom, H. (2018). Radical ocean futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping, Futures, 95, 22-32. doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.005
  43. Minetto, F., Pirlone, F & Tomasoni, L. (2011). Proposal of a methodological approach for sustainable regeneration in the historical centers of the Mediterranean Basin, Procedia Engineering, 21, 1015 – 1022. doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2011.11.2107
  44. Mirzakhani, A., Turro, M. & Jalilisadrabad, S. (2021). Key stakeholders and operation processes in the regeneration of historical urban fabrics in Iran, Cities, 118. doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2021.103362
  45. Mohammadi Sarin Dizaj, M. (2021). Analysis of the physical resilience of urban areas against earthquakes by presenting a scenario (case study: Zanjan city). Applied Research Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21 (60), 65 – 85. http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22287736.1400.21.60.3.9. [in Persian].
  46. Mohd Noor, N., Asmawi, M.Z & Abdullah, A. (2015). Sustainable Urban Regeneration: GIS and Hedonic Pricing Method in determining the value of green space in housing area, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 170, 669 – 679. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.069
  47. Nasir, R.A., Ahmad, S., Ahmed, A.Z. & Ibrahim, N. (2015). Adapting Human Comfort in an Urban Area: The role of tree shades towards urban regeneration, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 170, 369 – 380. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.047
  48. Noring, L. (2019). Public asset corporation: A new vehicle for urban regeneration and infrastructure finance, Cities, 88, 125 – 135. doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.01.002
  49. Omar, S.S., Sakip, S.R & Akhir, N. (2016). Bringing the New to the Old: Urban regeneration through public arts, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 234, 515 – 524. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.10.270
  50. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2020). Strength through Diversity: Education for Inclusive Societies Design and Implementation Plan, https://www.oecd.org
  51. Osman, M.M., Bachok, S. & Rabe, N.S. (2015). Local Residents’ Perception on Socio-Economic impact of Iskandar Malaysia: an example of urban regeneration program in Malaysia, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 170, 58 – 69. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.015
  52. Pellicelli, G., Rosseti, S., Caselli, B & Zazzi, M. (2022). Urban regeneration as an opportunity to redesign Sustainable Mobility. Experiences from the Emilia-Romagna Regional Call, Transportation Research Procedia, 60, 576 – 583. doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2021.12.074
  53. Peng, Z., Jia, L., Quan, S.J. & Yang, P.P. (2017). How the roofing morphology and housing form affect energy performance of Shanghai’s workers’ village in urban regeneration, Energy Procedia, 142, 3075 – 3082. doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.447
  54. Peterson, G.D., Cumming, G.S & Carpenter, A.R. (2003). Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World, Conservation Biology, 17 (2), 358 – 366. doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x
  55. Preet Singh, H., Singh, A., Alam, F & Agrawal, V. (2022). Impact of Sustainable Development Goals on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: Role of Education and Training, Sustainability, 14 (21), doi.org/10.3390/su142114119
  56. Rahman, S.R., Ahmed, H., Mohammad, S. & Roslet, M.S. (2015). Perception of Green Roof as a Tool for Urban Regeneration in a Commercial Environment: The Secret Garden, Malaysia, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 170, 128 – 136. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.022
  57. Rogerson, R & Giddings, B. (2021). The future of the city centre: Urbanisation, transformation and resilience – a tale of two Newcastle cities, Urban Studies, 58 (10), 1967 – 1982. doi.org/10.1177/0042098020936498
  58. Ruijsbroek, A., Wong, A., Brink, C., Droomers, M., Van Oers, H., Stronks, K. & Kunst, A. (2019). Does selective migration bias the health impact assessment of urban regeneration programmes in cross-sectional studies? Findings from a Dutch case study, Health and Place, 55, 155–164. doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2018.11.007
  59. Sessa, M.R., Russo, A. & Sica, F. (2022). Opinion paper on green deal for the urban regeneration of industrial brownfield land in Europe, Land Use Policy, 119. doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106198
  60. Snieska, V & Zykiene, I. (2015). City attractiveness for investment: characteristics and underlying factors, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 213, 48 – 54. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.402
  61. Sobhani, N., Saeedifard, F., Vahedi Yeganeh, F & Golchin, M. (2018), Urban regeneration, passive defense and crisis management in dilapidated contexts, Jahad university of Qazvin province branch Press. Qazvin. [in Persian].
  62. Statistical Center of Iran. (2016). Tehran province, Tehran city. [in Persian]. https://www.amar.org.ir/Statistical yearbook of Tehran municipality. (2021). Tehran city. [in Persian]. amar.thmporg.ir/tehran-organs-yearbook/
  63. Szemzo, H., Mosquera, J., Polyak, L & Hayas, L. (2022). Flexibility and Adaptation: Creating a Strategy for Resilience, Sustainability, 14 (5), doi.org/10.3390/su14052688
  64. Szpilko, D. (2020). Foresight as a Tool for the Planning and Implementation of Visions for Smart City Development, Energies, 13 (7). doi.org/10.3390/en13071782
  65. Tieges, Z., Georgiou, M., Smith, N., Morison, G. & Ghastin, S. (2022). Investigating the association between regeneration of urban blue spaces and risk of incident chronic health conditions stratified by neighbourhood deprivation: A population-based retrospective study, 2000–2018, International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, 240. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheh.2022.113923
  66. Ujang, N & Zakariya, K. (2015). The Notion of Place, Place Meaning and Identity in Urban Regeneration, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 170, 709 – 717. doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.073
  67. Vahedi Yeganeh, F., Meshkini, A & Mohammadi, A. (2022). Analyzing the role of development stimulating projects in the realization of regeneration policies (case study: the central area of Sanandaj city), Economy and urban planning, 3 (3), 196 – 211. doi.org/10.22034/uep.2022.356966.1273. [in Persian].
  68. Wang, R., Browning, M., Kee, F. & Hunter, R. (2023). Exploring mechanistic pathways linking urban green and blue space to mental wellbeing before and after urban regeneration of a greenway: Evidence from the Connswater Community Greenway, Belfast, UK, Landscape and Urban Planning, 235. doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104739
  69. Wigginton, N.S., Fahrenkamp-Uppenbrink, J., Wible, B & Malakoff, D. (2016). Introduction to special issue: cities are the Future, Science, 352 (6288), doi.org/10.1126/science.352.6288.904
  70. Winkowska, J & Pejić, S. (2021). Best practices of urban foresight in the process of city development management in the light of the smart city concept, The Central European Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 9, 14 – 22. doi-10_33226_1231-7853_2021_9_2
  71. Yao, Z., Li, B., Li, G. & Zeng, C. (2021). Resilient governance under asymmetric power structure: The case of Enning Road Regeneration Project in Guangzhou, China, Cities, 111, doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102971
  72. Zabel, R. & Kwon, Y. (2021). Evolution of urban development and regeneration funding programs in German cities, Cities, 111. doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.103008
  73. Zaluska, D.K. (2016). Participatory Budgeting in Poland – Missing Link in Urban Regeneration Process, Procedia Engineering, 161, 1996 – 2000. doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.08.792.
شهر آینده، اندیشه بومی
دوره 1، شماره 1
مرداد 1404
صفحه 1-20

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار